RVI Report: Rural Voter Attitudes in the Post-Roe World
Kansas Results: A Turnout Model
The August 2 Election results in Kansas (ballot initiative to deny abortion rights) showed the power and potential of the issue as a strong turnout mechanism for supporters of women’s bodily autonomy. Election turnout projections were far exceeded. In rural and urban counties alike the vote in support of women’s reproductive freedoms comfortably exceeded Biden’s performance and the anti-abortion position distinctly underperformed Donald Trump’s past electoral performance in those counties.
New research by the Rural Voter Institute suggests that a distinction between the issue for candidates and ballot initiatives should be considered and addressed intentionally as the November midterm election approaches.
States with a Democratic Performance Index as low as 45 percent can deliver support for initiatives like minimum wage, Medicaid expansion, and cannabis as high as 65 percent. This trend of supporting progressive issues but rejecting the partisan framework is validated by our recent focus group research around this very topic where ticket-splitting likely voters who are mostly moderate to right-leaning in ideology largely saw the importance of maintaining a woman’s freedom to make her own choices over her own body in consultation with a doctor but believed the additional of partisanship made the issue too divisive.
When given the choice between supporting reproductive freedom for women and limiting that freedom, our research and the Kansas election results both indicate voters will overwhelmingly reject the limitations. However, when given the hierarchy of needs and partisan frames that play into how voters decide which candidates are best suited to represent them at a particular moment in time, reproductive freedom not only isn’t a top-ranking priority but the topic being delivered by a partisan messenger or in a partisan frame may dilute the effectiveness.
Democratic campaigns should doubledown on tying the Republican opponent to the fringe, extreme elements of this issue, like a full ban, no exemptions for rape and incest, no exemptions for the life and health of the mother and or child, and no exemptions for emergency contraception and invitro fertilization.
Key Points:
Democrats must be specific in raising the issue to draw sharp contrasts with specific GOP opponents tying them to the most extreme positions of the Republican agenda on this issue. Full bans or near full bans were largely seen as having gone too far and Republicans must be forced to own these extreme positions so they can be put on the ropes.
If Republicans own the extreme nature of their position, they lose persuasion voters. If Republicans do not own the extreme nature of their position, they risk their position with their base.
Panelists assumed individual Republican candidates and officeholders held more nuanced positions than Democrats regarding abortion and that must be effectively resolved to remind voters of the stakes.
Panelists overwhelmingly rejected partisan statements about the issue from both ideological perspectives.
Values-based language matters. Rejecting judgmentalism towards women and honoring personal bodily autonomy were core values for those voters who split tickets and rejected the Dobbs decisions. A values-based dialogue on these terms is a foundational means of turning out rural and small-town women voters on the issue.
Gas prices and inflation will remain part of the dialogue. Rural and small-town women panelists raised inflation and gas prices as a bigger factor in their decision making on who to vote for in November and Democrats ignore those issues at their own peril.
For findings and recommendations, please download the report below.